FIRST LETS LOOK AT THE DAILY S&P 500 CHART

Notice the angle of the trendline, it is very fast and indicates to me this is an exhaustion style of trend.  The last move down held every technical measurement to indicate it was a counter trend in an ongoing bull campaign.  The pattern at the low (three thrusts and a false break) along with the technical readings such as upside volume all indicated the index would be higher three months from that last low.  A vast majority of exhaustion highs are 90 calendar day blowoff style of trends and I am convinced that is the highest probability.  I’ve also been indicating for the past year this current trend would follow the pattern of trending similar to the 1946 Dow Jones and so far it has been exact even with this last correction being 14 trading days and 1946 saw the last move down before the final 90 calendar exhaustion also at 14 trading days.

Remember by historic standards these bull trends are getting mature and since markets exhaust into highs any exhaustion move this late in the game carries with a probability of ending the bull campaign.  This bull campaign will end around June 12 and a period of distribution and lower or secondary high around July 27th.  Remember 2008 should be a bull year so this coming large correction or even bear trend will set up the next bull trend that will be fairly short lived and run into 2009 but should be a fast trend.

NOW LET’S LOOK AT THE FTSE

In the same vane as the US Stock index all markets have a period of time that brings them into maturity.  As a general rule getting into the 4^th year starts the point to where one should look for an exhaustion movement.  Remember markets exhaust into tops.  The “time” for the last leg of trends is a bit different in this index as there are a few 144 calendar day time periods that have been dominate and along with the normal 180 calendar time windows.  While in exhaustion movements it is risky to assume a price based upon normal price vibrations but I can say 6750 +- 10 points is a good probability but could see 6820 it all depends upon how much time is left.

Also keep in mind there will also be a period of distribution or struggle before the trend reverses.  Possible time windows are June 13, July 10^th and August 6^th.

Keep an eye on Crude oil it is now into the time window that would end a counter trend rally if the trend is down.