CNBC SQUAWK BOX EUROPE

FIRST LET’S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 DAILY CHART

We have had this chart up on the website for the past month.  When looking at important dates within stock groups many had hit important highs on December 9^th and therefore we though the vibration in time could be significant from that date.  So the first few days in March had 90 and 60 calendar day cycles expiring.  As I pointed out last report all last legs down in bear trends have definite period of time with 45 to 51, 60 to 64 and 90 to 99 calendar days down as that time factor.  And as we have pointed out many times a 90 day high to low or low to high is strong probability for completing movements.  So there is “TIME” for a low but qualifying the significance of this low is difficult.  I feel confident it will run at least 7 to 12 trading days and is currently up to resistance from the previous low set in February 23^rd.  That price level is very significant if the trend is to remain down. 

If this does turn down within the 7 to 12 trading day time window then a significant low and possible end to the bear trend will occur in the first week in April. That is the next series of the cycles.  If the rally can exceed 13 trading days then the last low could be very significant and the rally could run for a few months.   It should now consolidate the move up due to the resistance level with a small correction or a few days on the side.

LET’S LOOK AT THE US DOLLAR INDEX

The US dollar index moved to a new high in March and failed.  This remains in the 1/3 to 3/8 retracement of the last leg down and is very important resistance.  I thought around March 18 was a valid date for a high but that seems too soon considering this index usually needs to distribute for a month or so.  But because of the failure at the previous high (obvious resistance) it is important to look at the next rally to see if there is a possibility it can be qualified as a counter trend.  Critical support for holding the up trend is marked on the chart.   Technically there has developed a probability for a top so we’re looking for evidence of distribution and that lower high.  No signals yet just a point of interest so far.    

THE NEXT CHART IS CORN

Back in January I said the agricultural commodities had completed a counter trend rally and should resume the downtrend.  Corn and other agricultural commodities are struggling down too much now to look for a continued downward move.  You can see each time it has broken to a new low it immediately recovered indicating a struggle down.  I don’t know if a strong low is in place but there appears to be too much risk for the short side.