CNBC EUROPE

LET?S LOOK AT THE FTSE 100 DAILY CHART

˜

Historically, this index does run in 90 calendar day blocks of time.˜ 90 low to low is bullish and 90 low to high can represent a risk to the trend.

Anytime a high pitch or strong momentum trend exceeds 99 days and has only shown first-degree counter trends of one to four days, as this trend has shown.˜ Is getting long in tooth, but when in an exhaustion style of trend, where it exhausts can be a difficult question as a few days could be a large number of points.˜ Last week the index showed a classic test of the high as I?ve noted on the chart.˜ That meant it had to move up immediately or this thrust was over and it moved up.˜ Friday came back to the previous old high as indicated by the small horizontal line.˜ On a very short-term basis, if price can move below that line it would be a sign of weakness and make the next rally questionable.˜ If it can now move higher without a further dip below that line it will leave the index in a strong position for the next multi day move up.˜ Best time I have for a high is the 27^th.˜ But as long as moves against the trend are held to 4 days or less, this will continue advancing at this current momentum.˜ That 4 day time period is very important in this circumstance.˜˜˜˜

˜

LET?S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 INDEX DAILY CHART

˜

Last week we gave a forecast that indicated the index would go down to around the price level of the June high and bounce.˜ That bounce would be a first-degree counter trend (not to exceed 4 days) and when that was complete the index would then test the 1204 level.˜ Once that occurred we would then determine if there would be one more move down or if the up trend was then going to resume and resume with an exhaustion style of trend as per my forecast in January.˜ So far the index has gone down only three days and the rally has been weak. Having that spike Noted on the chart) get that close to the July high would indicate this is either a further consolidation of the up trend or it is building a little top for the final move down I have been forecasting.˜˜˜˜

˜

CRUDE OIL˜˜ no chart

˜

The odds heavily favor this trend ending between 90 and 120 days from the last low on 23^rd of May.˜ So that gives a time window between the 21^st of this month into the 21^st of September.˜ I believe we are now within 1.20 of the maximum price.˜ But, then again, I also thought 62-63 was going to be difficult and all that occurred was 9 days down and a new high.

˜

CNBC ASIA

˜

LET?S LOOK AT THE HANG SENG INDEX

˜

I can continue to refer to these Asian markets as ?smokin??.˜ Four weeks ago I identified this move up as an exhaustive style of trend.˜ Last week the index had stopped at calculated resistance.˜ I expected the move down to be a first-degree counter trend of no more than 4 days, it was only one day.˜ I also indicated considering the history of this index, the last move would be a rather small advance for an exhaustion leg if it ended then.˜ I have two timing mechanisms here that we should follow.˜ One on the 24^th of August that could be important to maintaining the trend.˜ How the index behaves around that date is very significant. The price objectives are still way up into the 16,000 level, so I?m not to sure how to weight that cycle, a lot depends upon the price level at the time.˜ I can say that if the 22^nd is important, then September 9^th will also be important and October 6^th could end the trend.˜ As long as corrections can be limited to 4 days or less this exhaustion style of trend will continue.

˜

NOW LET?S LOOK AT THE AUSTRALIAN ASX 200 INDEX

˜

Last week I pointed out that when this market exceeds 6 days on the side and this is also true of most markets.˜ One must be very careful about the first move out of that style of sideways pattern could be a ?false break.?˜ I then reminded everyone that fast moves come from ?false breaks.?˜ And if the index could not go lower on Monday the 8^th, then that is what we could expect.˜ A fast move up out of the consolidation and up to the minimum in price is what followed.˜ The market did exceed the minimum price level and continued the fast trend up.˜ Next resistance is 4470, then 4519.˜ There is still a chance of seeing 4614.˜ Now we just need to see how this current exhaustion style of movement ends.˜ That pattern of this coming short-term exhaustion should tell us the extent of the next movement.

˜

NOW LET?S LOOK AT THE MONTHLY CHART FOR THIS INDEX

˜

You can see during the big bull trend of the late 1990?s this market did not go into an exhaustion as most other world markets had done.˜ This is now in an obvious exhaustion style of trend and the last move down was minimal compared to the advance, so this is a very strong trend on a long-term basis.˜ But is in an exhausting phase.˜

˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜

˜˜˜