mclarenreport.com.au

CNBC EUROPE

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LET?S LOOK AT THE FTSE 100 INDEX

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Last week I indicated the index still looked like an exhaustion style move up into the 19^th of January.˜ Last week I indicated the index was strong and because of the support at a high level the move should be for more than one week.˜ Some of your viewers asked that I explain that statement a bit further.˜ Notice the 5 day rally, now look at the 6-day move down.˜ The move down was even one day more than the move up and showed no ability to move down.˜ There were even two days that closed on the low and were immediately reversed the next day indicating temporary capitulations without any real weakness. If those days would have closed on the high for the day it would indicate upside testing and that would have changed the pattern.˜ So there were 5 days up and 6 days that attempted to go down but could not get anything other than one down day before support came in and reversal the index back up.˜ Hence that pattern showed support at a high level.

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LET?S LOOK AT A S&P 500 DAILY CHART

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Last week I was a little concerned if the index went lower there could be a run down to 1235.˜ If it held the last low it would keep the consolidation in a strong position and˜ indicated a move up into the 11^th.˜ Basically the index did a weak 10 day move up followed by a similar 10 day move down.˜ It looks like the index will reach a price marginally above 1300 to 1308 and should then consolidate the current trend until early February.˜ This temporary exhaustion should occur later this week or next week.˜ Again I believe a correction after this exhaustion above 1300 will be temporary and small and the next drive up could be as fast or faster than this current leg up.

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LET?S SHOW MY FORECAST for 2006

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The past 4 years my forecast has been termed ?high confidence?.˜ This year is not the same.˜ After January I may need to make a minor adjust to this forecast but for now the trading pattern for the year should look like this chart the only adjustment would come from the timing in early February.˜ This drive should exhaust marginally above 1300. A consolidation/correction should follow and one more even faster trend up into a top would define this forecast.˜ The only adjustment would be related to the magnitude of this current leg and the timing in February but the overall pattern would remain the same.˜

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CNBC ASIA

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LET?S LOOK AT THE HANG SENG DAILY CHART

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Last week I was a bit concerned if the index showed further weakness it could be setting up a lower high.˜ There was no weakness so the index resumed the up trend.˜ The move up was 5 days followed by a move down that was 5 days.˜ The sixth day went marginally lower. And 3 days up from the low the index was at a new high. It only took 3 days to take back the 6 day move down.˜ Obviously showing it was easier to go up and moving back in less than half the time is a very positive signal by my analysis of ?time.?˜ This gives a price projection to 16.6 or 16.7.˜ The next cycle that is of interest is on 27^th of January.˜

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LET?S LOOK AT THE AUSTRALIAN ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

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I?m still looking for a run to 4850 All Ordinaries.˜ We should see a consolidation of some sort around that price level.˜ That could start a topping process or we could see one more exhaustive style trend up and another 120 or 240 points up.˜ For now all I can forecast is 4850.˜ The risk from time cycles comes around the 19^th of this month and then out to Mid-March.˜ I have believed the 4850 level to be significant and could bring in a top.˜ But I keep looking at the CRB Index and what could be a breakaway above the 1980 highs and that is very positive for the Australian stock indexes. This should be a long tern bull campaign in commodities.˜˜ So I need to see what pattern of trading occurs once the index is above 4825 before giving a further forecast.˜˜˜˜˜

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EVERY YEAR I PUBLISH A FORECAST FOR THE US MARKET ?THE NEXT CHART IS THIS FORECAST

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I?m looking for this leg to exhaust within the next two weeks and consolidate.˜ After a multi week consolidation there should be another fast trend up to exhaust the bull campaign and the trading pattern for the rest of the year and into 2007 should look like this chart.˜˜˜˜˜˜

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